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Poker Value Betting

Poker
2023 Feb 1 5 min read
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We explained value bets in the small introduction above, but let’s be clearer than that. Value bets are those in which we expect to beat our opponent. In other words, a value bet is a bet placed with the hope that our opponent calls, since we believe that our equity is greater than theirs.

Still fuzzy about the meaning? Let’s use an example to paint a better picture. On a board of kd, kh, 3d, Player A is dealt kc, 10d and Player B is dealt 3c, 7d.

Player A knows that, with their three of a kind kings, they hold a far greater advantage than Player B who, statistically, is not likely to hold a king. Even so, Player A’s kicker (10) is not that bad, which gives them even more equity.

In this case, why doesn’t Player A go all-in to secure the goods? They clearly have the better hand, so why not go for the immediate win? We’ll answer that in the next section.

WHY IS VALUE BETTING IMPORTANT IN POKER?

A value bet in poker can determine whether you win money or lose money. As we’ve mentioned above, the more money we make from our strong hands, the more we can prosper in a poker game in the long run.

In the example above, Player A shouldn’t go all-in or bet big with their three of a kind king because Player B will immediately realise that their opponent holds a big hand. If Player B folds, Player A will have lost their chance to make their hand profitable — this would be a disastrous loss for Player A, since the winnings earned through this hand could serve to pay several blinds in future game rounds.

Therefore, how much should Player A bet in order to avoid the chance that their opponent folds? That will depend on several factors, some of which we’ll talk about in the next section. In general, the more times both players face each other during a game, the better they will know each others’ range and calls. After all, that’s what makes poker so exciting!

IMPORTANT CONSIDERATIONS WHEN VALUE BETTING

Many factors can make a difference in whether your value bet is a success or a failure. As always happens in the game of poker, formulating a poker strategy must take into account several variables, such as the ones listed below.

OPPONENTS’ PREVIOUS CALLS

Has your opponent been calling any bets in previous rounds? If so, what’s their limit? Some players tend to establish a ceiling when it comes to calling bets, and in this case, you should bet small if you want to value a bet. Although it’s impossible to know what your opponent’s calling ceiling is, you can definitely play it safe—but not too safe!

OPPONENTS’ STACK SIZES

If your opponent only has a small amount of cash remaining, then a value bet can end up in one of two ways:

  • It can work, and your opponent might even decide to shove.
  • It might not work since your opponent will be wary of losing their last stack of cash.

On the other hand, large stacks are usually harder to figure out. Good players will know when to fold and when to call, so there’s no point in using their stack size to predict their behaviour.

THE CURRENT STREET

Value betting in late streets offers a worse chance of success compared to doing so in early streets, since players will have made their best hand by the river.

In such cases, it’s better to give a value bet a miss and assume that even a small bet will result in a raise. Value bets work best in early streets, such as pre-flop, with the latest street being the turn.

POKER VALUE BETTING TIPS

Playing a value bet can easily go wrong if you’re missing a key piece of information about your opponent. Simply hoping to hit a good value bet won’t work at too many tables, especially if your opponents are seasoned poker players.

Therefore, here are some valuable tips that you should take note of before you go ahead and start value betting your way to an empty chip balance!

DON’T LEAVE ANY PROFIT ON THE TABLE

Let’s reiterate that your main objective is to get the maximum value out of your hand. This becomes a hard feat if your value bets are much lower than what your opponent is capable of calling.

At the same time, it is normal to be afraid that your opponent will fold, thus, rendering your profit margin null. The key is studying your opponent enough to know where they draw the line. If you think that there is more money to be made, up your bet size when trying value bets.

TARGET WEAK PLAYERS

The truth is that weak players — called ‘fish’ by the poker community — do not yet have the ability to sniff out a value bet or a bluff. You can find many fish in low-stakes cash games, so it’s worth playing a few rounds at such tables to test your value betting strategy.

Furthermore, fish tend to feel more comfortable calling than betting, which can give you the edge, even if yours is a worse hand than theirs.

CONSIDER YOUR OPPONENT’S RANGE

If you play enough rounds at the same table, you’ll gradually be able to predict your opponent’s behaviour. In doing so, you could formulate their range, that is, the range of hands they consider worth betting money on.

In the same vein, consider the board texture. If it allows for hands within your opponents’ range, then they might have a draw, if not a made hand. In this case, a value bet might lead to bigger bets from their end, especially if they believe to have the winning hand.

DON’T VALUE BET WHEN OUT OF POSITION

Position is king when it comes to the game of poker. Even as much as a top pair can win the pot if its position is late (assuming that the correct decisions have been made). If you’re playing early, it might not be worth value betting at all.

This isn’t to say that playing early equates to a loss, come what may, but you can expect to be at a very significant disadvantage. Unless you have a very strong hand, there might be no point in splashing any cash in the pot — even a flush draw can not be worth the cash.

MOST COMMON MISTAKES WHEN POKER VALUE BETTING

Now seems like a pretty good time to explain what the most common mistakes are when trying a value bet. Although a value bet can go wrong, you can rest assured that there is a way to make it as effective as possible. The best way to do that is to avoid the following mistakes.

HAVING LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN YOUR HAND

This is one of the worst mistakes you could commit when trying value betting. When calculating (through tells and pot equity) that yours is the best hand, it’s important to avoid going for a thin value bet.

In such situations, try to keep in mind that your opponents have worse hands than you do, so even if they raise, you can still call.

BEING TOO WARY OF A CHECK-RAISE

In general, you stand a very low chance of being check-raised. Most players are afraid that their value betting will lead to a check raise, which will entail an investment that they might not be ready to make.

Chances are that other players will river bet anyway if they hit, especially with a good kicker. You’re better off capitalising on value bets now instead of waiting around for them to hit in later streets.

HOW DO I CALCULATE MY POKER VALUE BET?

Unfortunately, there is no magical equation to calculate the exact amount that you should try value betting. Each game has different players who react differently to different situations, which is why there is no one-size-fits-all answer to this question.

Your best bet is to practise. The more hands you play, the more experience you’ll have with not only bet sizing but also making calls and better deciphering your preferred hand range. You will then slowly manage to break free from the dependence on specific equations and calculators in favour of simply following your gut. You should consider playing at lower-stakes tables to get used to value betting.

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