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What Are The Odds Of A Pair In Poker?

Poker
2022 Nov 24 5 min read
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Most poker strategy articles tend to gloss over the importance of pairs in poker. If a pair can get beaten by almost every other hand in the game, why devote an entire article to it?

Here’s the thing. Pairs — even a simple low pair — can sway the pot odds in your favour considerably. When the board texture is as dry as the Sahara Desert, pairs can steal the spotlight very quickly with a snatch-and-grab that could leave every poker player present scratching their head.

If you want to know more about this fundamental aspect of online poker, stick around. In this article, we’ll explain the exact definition of a pair in poker, the chances of getting one in each street and what tips you should keep in mind when playing with a pair.

WHAT IS A PAIR IN POKER?

Also known as a one pair, a pair refers to a hand in which two cards are of the same rank, whereas the rest are of different ranks. Here are some examples of pairs:

  • A-A-Q-10-2
  • K-K-6-5-2
  • Q-Q-J-9-6
  • J-J-9-5-3
  • 10-10-6-5-3

There are many more possibilities to make a pair, of course, but the ones we listed are the most powerful pairs in the game. Now comes the big question: which pairs beat which in poker?

That depends on the cards used to make the pair. Higher cards — that is, cards with a high ranking — make stronger pairs than others that feature lower-ranked cards. For example, a pair of Jacks will beat a pair of 5s simply because the Jack is ranked higher than the 5.

What happens if two pairs of the same nature collide, such as the following hand: J-J-10-5-4 and J-J-9-7-2? In such cases, the kicker will decide which of the two is the higher pair. The kicker is the highest-ranking card that doesn’t contribute to the made hand.

In the example above, the kickers would be 10 and 9, respectively. Seeing as 10 is ranked higher than 9, the first hand (J-J-10-5-4) wins.

ODDS OF MAKING A PAIR OUT OF A 52-CARD DECK

The odds of being dealt a pair from a 52-card deck are very high in comparison with other hand combinations. As we’ve mentioned above, the chances of such an eventuality occurring stand at 1 in 2.4, or if you’re a stickler for percentages, 42.26%.

ODDS OF GETTING A PAIR IN TEXAS HOLD’EM POKER

In a 52-card deck, there are 2,860 pair combinations. To work out the probability of being dealt this hand, we need to ascertain the total number of possible poker hands and the total number of ways a pair can be dealt. We can then assume how a pair can be made. To work out the chance of being dealt a pair, divide the number of pairs by the number of poker hands. The odds stand at 1/1.366477 or 49.9% of pulling off this poker hand, which are very high.

There are a good 2,598,960 different five-card poker hands that can be dealt, but the odds of making the different poker hands are considerably different. For the purpose of this article, have a look at the chances of making a pair compared to other hands.

  • Royal flush: 1 in 649,740
  • Straight flush: 1 in 72,193
  • Four of a kind: 1 in 4,165
  • Full house: 1 in 694
  • Flush: 1 in 509
  • Straight: 1 in 255
  • Three of a kind: 1 in 47
  • Two pair: 1 in 21
  • One pair: 1 in 2.4
  • High card: 1 in 2

As you can see, the poker odds of making pairs are pretty good, but the downside is that you shouldn’t expect to win all too often, especially if other, stronger hands are in play.

ODDS OF HITTING A PAIR ON THE FLOP

When it comes to calculating the chances of making a pair on the flop depends on the hand dealt. Should we have two unpaired hole cards, the odds of making this hand on the flop would stand at 29%.

ODDS OF HITTING A PAIR ON THE TURN

For the sake of this article, let’s assume that we haven’t made a pair on the flop. Now that the turn has rolled around, we have an additional three cards to help us make a pair. This means that the chances of hitting a pair on the turn are 12.8% (6/47).

This is calculated by taking into account the 47 cards left in the deck as well as the six that can give us a pair.

ODDS OF HITTING A PAIR ON THE RIVER

Seeing as the river will feature one card more than the previous street (the turn), there is one less card in the deck (bringing the total to 46).

Our calculations are, therefore, quite straightforward. Dividing 46 by 6 would put our probability of making a pair on the river at 13%.

How exactly are the chances higher this time around? With fewer cards in the deck, the chances of making a pair are now slightly better.

IMPLIED ODDS OF A PAIR IN POKER

Your chances of extracting a lot of money from your opponent if you have a pair are quite low.

You don’t have to play poker for very long to realise that making pairs is very easy, thus giving you very little leverage to successfully pull off aggressive actions like a re-raise or going all in.

Unless the board texture is extremely dry, small pairs are rarely worth sinking too much money into. A small pocket pair might fare better, as long as there aren’t any cards higher than that present.

Pocket aces, pocket Queens or a pocket pair might will have better implied odds than a smaller pocket pair, of course, so it is up to you to determine how and when you should play pocket pairs.

PAIR POKER TIPS

One of the best tips you can consider when being dealt a pair is to keep your eye open for the presence of premium hands.

  • A pair can definitely hold its own on a dry board texture, but a straight draw or flush draw can be the outs your opponents need to beat your pair and take the pot.
  • Another handy tip is to try set mining: trying to hit three of a kind with small pocket pairs on the flop. Should you succeed, you can try playing aggressively in an attempt to wow the table and steal the pot.

In summation, practice makes perfect when it comes to online poker, so feel free to hop by the tables of EnergyCasino to refine your pair-wielding hands!

PAIR STAGES PROBABILITY IN TEXAS HOLD’EM

  • Hitting from the flop: 29%
  • Hitting on the turn: 12.8%
  • Hitting on the river: 13%